As the calendar turns to March and Selection Sunday looms tantalizingly close, the annual heated discussion around the NCAA men’s basketball tournament bubble has once again commenced.
But for all the debate that surrounds who should be in and out of the 68-team field, dozens of other teams across the country that are safely in will be spending the final two weeks of the 2025-26 regular season jockeying for position on the bracket.
At this pivotal time of year, some teams are hitting their stride and looking poised for a deep tournament run. Others, meanwhile, are watching their once-bright hopes fade with loss after loss.
What teams are surging in March Madness projections? And which ones are starting to stumble?
Here’s a look at the latest list of rising and falling teams for the 2026 NCAA Tournament:
Projected seeds are based on the bracketology update from USA TODAY Sports on Feb. 27
Rising
Florida
Current projected seed: No. 2
The reigning national champions once again look like one of the favorites to cut down the nets with “One Shining Moment” playing in the background. The Gators got off to an inauspicious 5-4 start, but have gone 18-2 since. Their once-struggling backcourt of Xaivian Lee and Boogie Fland is starting to round into form while its frontcourt remains arguably the best in the sport.
UConn
Current projected seed: No. 1
If the Gators aren’t able to gobble up that final No. 1 seed, it will likely be because of another recent national champion. The Huskies haven’t been on quite the same run that Florida has — they’re 5-2 in their past seven games after starting the season 22-1 — but one of their recent wins was as impressive a victory as anyone has had this season: a 72-40 beatdown of St. John’s on Feb. 25.
The win helped solidify UConn’s standing as the fourth No. 1 seed, a status aided in part by a Dec. 9 victory at Madison Square Garden against the Florida team that’s chasing it.
Alabama
Current projected seed: No. 4
One month ago, the Crimson Tide were 14-7, coming off a 23-point loss at Florida and were mired in former G League player Charles Bediako’s contentious eligibility fight. Quite a bit has changed since then. Coach Nate Oats’ team has reeled off eight consecutive victories, including against ranked Tennessee and Arkansas teams, and is up to No. 15 in the NCAA’s NET rankings.
Saint Mary’s
Current projected seed: No. 8
The Gaels are coming off their most emphatic, and certainly sweetest, win of the season, a 70-59 victory on Feb. 28 against then-No. 9 Gonzaga in the final regular-season meeting between the rivals as West Coast Conference members. Saint Mary’s won its final eight-season games and is 18-2 since Dec. 15.
With another win against the Bulldogs in a potential WCC championship matchup, the Gaels could maybe manage avoiding a No. 1 or No. 2 seed in a possible second-round NCAA tournament game.
Virginia
Current projected seed: No. 4
Yes, the Cavaliers are coming off a 26-point humbling at the hands of Duke, but there have been few teams better than them nationally since the calendar flipped to 2026. Since a triple-overtime loss at Virginia Tech on New Year’s Eve, Virginia is 14-2, with wins against NC State (twice), at Louisville and against Miami.
Ryan Odom has engineered one of the more impressive one-year turnarounds in recent memory in the sport. It’s the least he could do after upsetting the No. 1 seed Hoos back in 2018 when he was the coach at UMBC.
Falling
BYU
Current projected seed: No. 6
What was set up to be a magical season for the Cougars with potential No. 1 overall NBA Draft pick AJ Dybantsa has started to unravel in recent weeks. Since starting the season 16-1, BYU is just 4-8 in its past 12 games. While some of that is the unavoidable rigor of a Big 12 schedule, it has also suffered losses against the likes of Oklahoma State and West Virginia, neither of which is projected to make the NCAA tournament. Since Jan. 17, the Cougars are only the No. 60 team nationally, according to Bart Torvik.
A season-ending injury to Richie Saunders on Feb. 14 certainly didn’t help matters, but even before that, BYU was already sliding, with a 2-5 mark in its seven most recent games.
Purdue
Current projected seed: No. 2
A Boilermakers team that was 17-1 and No. 4 in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll just six weeks ago has been decidedly more mortal the past month and change, going 5-6 in its past 11 games. More recently, it has lost three of its past four games, including an 82-74 loss on Sunday at an Ohio State team desperately fighting for its NCAA tournament life.
Purdue still has one of the best players in the sport in guard Braden Smith, but nearing the end of the regular season, the preseason No. 1 team has fallen comfortably short of expectations.
Houston
Current projected seed: No. 2
“Falling” is a relative term when you’re dealing with a program that’s been as dominant as Houston has the past five years, but the Cougars are 1-3 in their past four games after a 23-2 start. That skid included the program’s first three-game losing streak since all the way back in 2017.
Coach Kelvin Sampson’s team ultimately may not be that hurt by the recent slip-ups. Whether it’s as a No. 1 or a No. 2 seed, the Cougars may end up getting to play Sweet 16 and potentially Elite Eight games in Houston.
Texas A&M
Current projected seed: No. 9
Bucky Ball, the intensely fast-paced system implemented by first-year Aggies head coach Bucky McMillan has encountered its share of speed bumps lately. Texas A&M has dropped six of its past eight games after starting the season 17-4, with three of those losses coming by at least 13 points. Thankfully for the Aggies, there’s a chance for a high-profile rebound, with a home game Tuesday against Kentucky.
Louisville
Current projected seed: No. 6
The Cardinals have quietly been one of the more disappointing teams in the sport this season, going just 13-9 since a 7-0 start that vaulted them as high as No. 6 in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll. Some of that could be attributed to an extended injury absence from five-star freshman guard Mikel Brown, who Louisville went 4-4 without, but even with Brown and every other rotation piece, it has lost three of its past four games.
Coach Pat Kelsey’s team is increasingly looking like a squad that will be fortunate to advance past the first week of the tournament, rather than the Final Four or national championship contender it was viewed as in the preseason.
NC State
Current projected seed: No. 7
Will Wade likely has the Wolfpack headed back to the NCAA tournament in his first season at the helm, but they’re currently limping on their way there. NC State has lost four of its past five after an 18-6 start. The losses are bad enough, but the way they’ve come is even more concerning. It was drubbed by 41 at Louisville and 29 at Virginia, and most recently, it lost on the road to a 13-16 Notre Dame team that had lost 12 of its previous 14 games.
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